Archive for July, 2012

Some Jeremy Lin Predictions

July 16, 2012
Nothing groundbreaking but here we go…
  1. Knicks won’t match the Rockets poison pill offer sheet and Lin will go to Houston.  Dolan excels at mismanagement so it makes total sense for him to transform into Don Sterling when it comes to the only player on his team besides Shumpert that has a ton of upside.
  2. Lin will get phenomenally better this year.  He’s been spending his summer  in the yay area working on cutting down his turnovers which are usually caused by over-dribbling and telegraphing passes.  On the Warriors, the guy couldn’t shoot, couldn’t finish with an open lane, and couldn’t play under pressure.  He reinvented his shot in the offseason and on the Knicks, he was able to hit his shots to draw out defenders, turn dribble penetration + And 1 into his bread and butter, and do things like hit that Calderon dagger with the whole arena standing up and making noise.  I have no doubt he’ll do something similar with his A/TO ratio.
  3. Knicks will continue to be a dysfunctional mess and regress.  They’re a bunch of players slapped together that need different systems to shine but since Melo is the face of the franchise, once he gets bored, it all reverts back to Melo’s elbow ISO game.  A Felton/STAT pick and roll game will surface briefly then fizzle out.  Felton will eventually become nothing but an initiator pg.  On the other end, since 2 of their defensive specialists (Jeffries and Landry) were shipped out and the 3rd, Schumpert, is on the injured list, Tyson Chandler will be playing defense all by himself and the Knicks will be worse off defensively.  Everyone else joined the roster because Bibby needs some old people  on the bench to kick it with.
  4. Lin will be better off on the Rockets.  Yeah, the Rockets lineup is a bunch of scrubs but so was the Knicks bench that he led on that win streak.  He will make them better and not having to defer or run failed pick and rolls where Melo is crowding the rollman because he wants to post-up from his favorite spots should help.  And since Melo and JR have both thrown Lin under the bus (for being offered a CBA provision the Players Union fought to keep… isn’t that ironic), the locker room is fucked now anyway.
  5. On the Rockets, Toney Douglas will play the 2, regain his confidence/shot, and make an awesome comeback, giving Knicks fans another reason to hate Dolan.  Alright this I’m not sure about but I like Douglas and it would make for a great story.

As for all the talk about whether or not Lin is worth $15 million in his third year, of course he isn’t.  It’s a poison pill deal, where overpaying in the third year is used by a team with cap space to poach a player from a team with zero cap space.  Overpaying for the player is what makes the deal work.

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